Choosing the Red Pill
Ace of Spades HQ – the Conservative Top 10

Ace of Spades HQ

My Prediction for Tomorrow

Here’s the problem I have with the polls.

The problem here is like the Clarence Thomas/Anita Hill thing. I struggled to imagine a scenario in which both people were telling the truth, where the disagreements were just of interpretation.

I couldn’t. It was impossible. Someone was lying. It was very frustrating for me, because my first, and second, inclination is to imagine some scenario in which there are simply two versions of the truth, subject to the normal amount of fudging and perspective bias, but no one’s flat-out lying.

Or, in the case of polls, simply flat-out wrong.

In this case, I’ve been trying to reconcile a national vote tie with Obama’s persistent lead in Ohio and other swing states, which should in fact mirror the country. Ohio should be more Republican-leaning than the average.

As Brit Hume says, something’s wrong here, and we don’t know what.

What’s wrong here are the huge partisan splits in the Democrats’ advantage.

How can Obama be tied with Romney, in CNN’s final poll, with Independents going +22 for Romney?

Oh, right: Because, CNN projects, Democrats will enjoy an unheard-of +11 advantage in votes.

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